How close were opinion polls to the reality?
Difference between results and last opinion polls
published before election. Only data of the first seven parties were
taken into account in this comparison.
Polls were made by three organizations:
SU SR (Statistics Institute)
FOCUS-CSA (Focus - Center for Social and Marketing Analysis)
MVK SRo (Cabinet of Methodics and Research of the Slovak Radio)
Span (difference between the most overestimated and the most underestimated
entry):
1. SU SR: 11.59 % (-7.56 - +4.39)
2. MVK SRo: 15.65 % (-13.46 - +2.19)
3. FOCUS: 18.35 % (-10.56 - +7.79)
Average difference:
1. SU SR: +- 1.12 %
2. FOCUS: +- 1.56 %
3. MVK SRo: +- 1.63 %
Error per party:
Party Average diff Best Worst
HZDS -10.5 SU SR MVK SRo
SV +4.79 MVK SRo FOCUS
(results of other parties show no significant difference)